In essence, “expected value” is a concept
used to describe the average outcome of a given scenario
that hinges on an uncertain probabilistic event.
I’m not sure why they let me into this restaurant.
I was in New York a few weeks back. I hadn’t been to the city in over a decade. I was committed to a tournament series in Montreal anyway, so I decided to visit The Big Apple ahead of time so I could sightsee and see some friends.
The entire trip was incredible. Much like Russians, New Yorkers will tell you if they don’t like you. I appreciated the honesty.
In the mood for a good dinner, I took a woman I’m seeing out to a Portuguese place. It turned out to be way nicer than my goofy green button-up budgeted for.
Feeling awkward without a jacket or formal sweater, I peeled off to the bathroom.
A hairy fat version of Russell Brand came out of the stall door. I decided to walk past him. He threw his arms up and asked, “what the f***?” He made a gesture toward me with his fist. I could smell vodka on him.
Confused, I decided to be a real manly man about things… so I ducked into the toilet and locked the door.
I played on my phone and tended to my business. I decided to take a minute more than usual. I wasn’t sure what the guy was mad about. I guess I’d knocked into his shoulder due to the narrow hallway, but I barely brushed against him.
My blood pressure was up all of the sudden. I wasn’t having a great night to begin with, and now some asshole wanted to fight with me over nothing. I didn’t appreciate it.
“But come on, Alex,” I said to myself. “What are the ups and downs to this course of action?”
I said those words. Why? I’ve been asking myself this question in regards to almost everything over the last ten years.
I went pro when I was 18. Everybody told me I was insane to do so. I didn’t understand them. I was living in someone’s garage with no heating or plumbing.
What exactly did I stand to lose? Yet, the potential upside was mind-numbing. I was young and had nothing going for me anyway. There was never a better time to take a shot, so I took mine.
It was the best decision I ever made. And everybody told me it would ruin my life.
In poker, I am frequently faced with profitable decisions I still don’t want to take. I will know I have an edge on someone’s range preflop, but I don’t want to put all my chips in the middle. I will get three-bet and fold tens preflop, because I know I am flipping versus my opponent’s nitbox range…if I’m even that lucky. Many times he has me dominated. I will also fold to three bets out of position, even though I know it’s possible to eke out a quarter of a big blind by flatting.
Why do I make these decisions? Think of Floyd Mayweather. The man has made a billion dollars as a scientist posing as a boxer. All he does is use his reach advantage to get in, take his points, and duck out. He’s slick. He works out until no one can catch him. He leaves nothing to chance in his training. He’s a machine. And he’s boring as all hell to watch.
Now, if Floyd Mayweather wanted to get in there and trade, I have all the faith in the world that he could. He knows how to brawl. But he also knows he does not need to brawl. If he ducks and weaves he has a 99% chance of winning the match.
If he opens up his stance and goes for the kill he’ll leave himself open to a haymaker. His chances of winning slide to 95%, perhaps.
That 4% might be A-Okay with Roy Jones Jr., but it is absolutely unacceptable to Floyd Mayweather.
Mayweather is nothing short of a military general. He knows he can win certain skirmishes, but he also knows it jeopardizes the entire battle, which could threaten the war (in this analogy, the war being his career). He takes a global view and picks his battles wisely. He is not above running away from his opponents when he feels he has the game won.
Life and poker can be seen in this way too. I do not flat threebets out of position often because I need to engage in a 20+ big blind pot to save 0.8 blinds off my 2.5X open. There’s too many variables that need to line up to keep me out of trouble. Frustrated with my field position I surrender that part of the map and regroup my forces for a later hand. Since I didn’t give up my chip position and its maneuverability, I’m able to enact I play I saw coming an hour ago which gives me 10-30 big blinds.
The same can be said for close flips or hero calls. If I am confused about what to do I simply fold my hand. I’ve spent 20,000+ hours playing and studying poker. If I don’t know how to work out a surefire profit then I’m going to guess there isn’t much profit to be won. I’m not giving up much when I simply forfeit early.
In life, we can view our decisions with these lenses as well. Was it right to get into an argument with that rude gentleman? Of course. I had every reason to give the guy a piece of my mind. He had no right threatening me over nothing.
However, I asked myself: “What are the upsides and downsides to this course of action?”
The answer was: “If I get up off this toilet right now, go outside, and give him a piece of my mind I’ll feel masculine for the approximate two minutes and 44 seconds it takes the wait staff to figure out what is going on and kick both of us out.”
Not much upside. However, losing my dinner reservation with the girl I was taking out sounded like a ridiculous downside.
I laughed and read Facebook till I was sure the guy had left. This was an easy fold.